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Supermodels: Interactive Ensembles of Imperfect Models
Published on May 27, 20133803 Views
At a dozen or so institutes around the world, comprehensive climate models are being developed and improved. Each model provides reasonable simulations of the observed climate, each with its own stren
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Chapter list
Supermodels: Interactive Ensembles of Imperfect Models00:00
Contributors to this presentation00:10
SUMO project00:31
Overview00:56
Climate models - 101:47
Climate models - 203:07
Sources of prediction uncertainty - 103:48
Sources of prediction uncertainty - 204:25
Sources of prediction uncertainty - 304:43
Sources of prediction uncertainty - 404:59
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project05:24
Motivation - 106:47
Dynamical systems10:26
Motivation - 210:32
Supermodeling as multimodel interactive ensemble methods12:44
Supermodel proposals17:59
Synchronization in chaotic systems18:04
Strong coupling leads to synchronization18:23
Large connection limit20:38
Supermodel proposals: weighted SUMO24:01
SUMO learning27:40
SUMO learning: Cost function of short integration error29:19
Vector field learning in weighted SUMO 30:48
SUMO in low dimensional perfect model experiments32:35
Lorenz 63 set up33:27
SUMO in Lorenz 6333:59
Imperfect model setting: chaotically driven Lorenz 6335:17
Overfitting in vectorfield learning versus attractor learning36:26
Atmospheric GCMs coupled to the same ocean (Shen e.a. 2013)39:02
SUMO of two atmospheric GCMs coupled to the same ocean (Shen e.a. 2013)41:24
Synchronization of the atmospheres42:34
Bias in mean SST44:20
Bias in mean SST with optimized SUMO47:10
Bias SST SUMO test set47:18
Conclusions47:46
Thank you49:18