published: July 22, 2009, recorded: June 2009, views: 2971
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Envisioning has been used extensively to model behavior of physical systems. Envisioning generates the qualitatively distinct possible behaviors without numerically simulating every possible set of input conditions and model parameters. This paper applies envisioning to analyze course of action (COA) diagrams to determine the qualitatively distinct outcomes of military operations. In order to avoid the combinatorial explosion of possible states, this envisioner factors non-interacting units into separate envisionment threads. The envisioner uses Assumption-Based Truth Maintenance to further limit combinatorial explosion and estimate probability of outcomes.We illustrate the performance of the factored envisioner on a variety of examples provided by military experts. We analyze its scaling performance and demonstrate its ability to track operations from sparse observations.
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