Variational Inference for Markov Jump Processes
Description
Markov jump processes (MJPs) underpin our understanding of many important systems in science and technology. They provide a rigorous probabilistic framework to model the joint dynamics of groups (species) of interacting individuals, with applications ranging from information packets in a telecommunications network to epidemiology and population levels in the environment. These processes are usually non-linear and highly coupled, giving rise to non-trivial steady states (often referred to as emerging properties). Unfortunately, this also means that exact statistical inference is unfeasible and approximations must be made in the analysis of these systems. A traditional approach, which has been very successful throughout the past century, is to ignore the discrete nature of the processes and to approximate the stochastic process with a deterministic process whose behaviour is described by a system of non-linear, coupled ODEs. This approximation relies on the stochastic fluctuations being negligible compared to the average population counts. There are many important situations where this assumption is untenable: for example, stochastic fluctuations are reputed to be responsible for a number of important biological phenomena, from cell differentiation to pathogen virulence. Researchers are now able to obtain accurate estimates of the number of macromolecules of a certain species within a cell, prompting a need for practical statistical tools to handle discrete data.
| Slides | |
| 0:00 | Variational inference for Markov jump processes |
| 0:18 | Talk plan |
| 0:42 | - Questions |
| 2:11 | Relevance to life sciences |
| 4:09 | Mathematical notation |
| 5:28 | Master equation |
| 7:12 | Variational inference |
| 7:48 | KL divergence between MJPs |
| 8:47 | Continuous limit |
| 9:24 | Posterior processes |
| 10:25 | Mean-field approximation |
| 11:54 | Constraints |
| 12:47 | Functional derivatives |
| 13:29 | Backward equation |
| 14:15 | Including observations |
| 14:20 | Functional derivatives |
| 14:32 | Backward equation |
| 14:38 | Including observations |
| 15:26 | Algorithm: Approximating the posterior (E-step) |
| 15:48 | Functional derivatives |
| 15:54 | Algorithm: Approximating the posterior (E-step) |
| 16:46 | Parameter estimation (M-step) |
| 17:12 | Application: Lotka-Volterra |
| 18:18 | Results: Lotka-Volterra |
| 19:25 | Parameter estimates |
| 20:08 | Application: Gene auto-regulation |
| 21:06 | Parameter estimation |
| 21:28 | Identifiability of critical parameter |
| 22:09 | Autoregulatory network: Results |
| 22:56 | Conclusions |
| 24:03 | Future work |
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Its very nice. I do more understand what MPJs is. Thank you very much.