Use of variance estimation in the multi-armed bandit problem
Description
An important aspect of most decision making problems concerns the appropriate
balance between exploitation (acting optimally according to the partial
knowledge acquired so far) and exploration of the environment (acting
sub-optimally in order to refine the current knowledge and improve future
decisions). A typical example of this so-called exploration versus exploitation
dilemma is the multi-armed bandit problem, for which many strategies
have been developed. Here we investigate policies based the choice of the
arm having the highest upper-confidence bound, where the bound takes
into account the empirical variance of the different arms. Such an algorithm
was found earlier to outperform its peers in a series of numerical
experiments. The main contribution of this paper is the theoretical investigation
of this algorithm. Our contribution here is twofold. First, we prove
that with probability at least 1 − B, the regret after n plays of a variant of
the UCB algorithm (called B-UCB) is upper-bounded by a constant, that
scales linearly with log(1/B), but which is independent from n. We also
analyse a variant which is closer to the algorithm suggested earlier. We
prove a logarithmic bound on the expected regret of this algorithm and
argue that the bound scales favourably with the variance of the suboptimal
arms.
| Slides | |
| 0:01 | Use of variance estimation in the multi-armed bandit problem |
| 0:20 | Outline |
| 0:41 | The multi-armed bandit problem |
| 1:33 | Notation (1/2) |
| 2:32 | Notation (2/2) |
| 5:45 | UCB policies |
| 6:27 | UCB policies01 |
| 7:51 | Bernstein’s type inequalities |
| 9:39 | Sketch of the proof |
| 11:03 | Sketch of the proof01 |
| 11:33 | Definition |
| 12:10 | Definition01 |
| 12:28 | Definition02 |
| 13:37 | A deviation inequality for the number of plays of non-optimal arms |
| 14:03 | A deviation inequality for the number of plays of non-optimal arms01 |
| 14:48 | A deviation inequality for the number of plays of non-optimal arms02 |
| 14:56 | Cumulative regret bounds |
| 18:16 | Cumulative regret bounds01 |
| 18:55 | Cumulative regret bounds02 |
| 19:49 | Discussion on the 1/n-UCB policy |
| 20:21 | Discussion on the 1/n-UCB policy01 |
| 20:27 | Discussion on the 1/n-UCB policy02 |
| 21:15 | Definition |
| 21:30 | Expected cumulative regret bound |
| 22:10 | Expected cumulative regret bound01 |
| 22:47 | Sketch of the proof (1/3) |
| 23:15 | Sketch of the proof (2/3) |
| 23:37 | Sketch of the proof (2/3) |
| 23:53 | Sketch of the proof (3/3) |
| 24:12 | Conclusion |
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