Sequential Monte-Carlo Methods

author: Nando de Freitas, Department of Computer Science, University of British Columbia
author: Arnaud Doucet, Department of Statistics, University of Oxford
published: Jan. 19, 2010,   recorded: December 2009,   views: 6014
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Slides

Slides
0:00 Sequential Monte Carlo
0:00 Tutorial overview
1:26 Tutorial overview, Part I Arnaud – 50min, 20th century
1:35 SMC in this community
2:51 The 20th century - Tracking (1)
4:00 The 20th century - Tracking (2)
4:26 The 20th century – State estimation (1)
5:22 The 20th century – State estimation (2)
5:44 The 20th century – State estimation (3)
6:53 The 20th century – The birth
8:20 Tutorial overview, Part I Arnaud – 50min
8:55 Arnaud’s slides will go here
8:57 Sequential Monte Carlo Methods
9:11 State-Space Models (1)
9:45 State-Space Models (2)
9:50 State-Space Models (3)
10:37 Inference in State-Space Models (1)
11:05 Inference in State-Space Models (2)
12:02 Inference in State-Space Models (3)
13:32 Monte Carlo Methods (1)
14:13 Monte Carlo Methods (2)
14:23 Monte Carlo Methods (3)
15:28 Monte Carlo Methods (4)
16:07 Basics of Sequential Monte Carlo Methods (1)
16:48 Basics of Sequential Monte Carlo Methods (2)
17:32 Importance Sampling (1)
18:08 Importance Sampling (2)
19:15 Importance Sampling (3)
19:38 Resampling (1)
20:31 Resampling (2)
21:18 Resampling (3)
21:33 Bootstrap Filter (Gordon, Salmond & Smith, 1993) (1)
21:59 Bootstrap Filter (Gordon, Salmond & Smith, 1993) (2)
22:15 Bootstrap Filter (Gordon, Salmond & Smith, 1993) (3)
22:43 Bootstrap Filter (Gordon, Salmond & Smith, 1993) (4)
23:17 SMC Output (1)
23:50 SMC Output (2)
23:52 SMC Output (3)
24:03 SMC Output (4)
25:13 SMC on Path-Space - …gures by Olivier Capp (1)
26:08 SMC on Path-Space - …gures by Olivier Capp (2)
26:23 SMC on Path-Space - …gures by Olivier Capp (3)
26:47 SMC on Path-Space - …gures by Olivier Capp (4)
26:53 SMC on Path-Space - …gures by Olivier Capp (5)
27:23 Illustration of the Degeneracy Problem
30:23 Convergence Results (1)
30:43 Convergence Results (2)
31:18 Convergence Results (3)
31:33 Convergence Results (4)
31:53 Stronger Convergence Results (1)
33:28 Stronger Convergence Results (2)
34:13 Stronger Convergence Results (3)
34:33 Stronger Convergence Results (4)
35:43 Improving the Sampling Step (1)
36:03 Improving the Sampling Step (2)
36:23 Improving the Sampling Step (3)
36:25 Improving the Sampling Step (4)
36:48 Various standard improvements (1)
37:18 Various standard improvements (2)
37:32 Improving the Resampling Step (1)
37:49 Improving the Resampling Step (2)
39:03 Online Bayesian Parameter Estimation (1)
39:42 Online Bayesian Parameter Estimation (2)
40:08 Online Bayesian Parameter Estimation (3)
41:53 Cautionary Warning (1)
42:13 Cautionary Warning (2)
42:27 Cautionary Warning (3)
43:13 Cautionary Warning (4)
44:23 Example of SMC with MCMC for Parameter Estimation (1)
44:48 Example of SMC with MCMC for Parameter Estimation (2)
45:14 Example of SMC with MCMC for Parameter Estimation (3)
45:48 Illustration of the Degeneracy Problem
46:48 O­ffline Bayesian Parameter Estimation (1)
47:28 O­ffline Bayesian Parameter Estimation (2)
47:38 O­ffline Bayesian Parameter Estimation (3)
48:15 Metropolis-Hastings (MH) Sampler (1)
49:28 Metropolis-Hastings (MH) Sampler (2)
50:08 Marginal Metropolis-Hastings Sampler (1)
50:48 Marginal Metropolis-Hastings Sampler (2)
51:43 Marginal Metropolis-Hastings Sampler (3)
51:58 Marginal Metropolis-Hastings Sampler (4)
52:39 Particle Marginal MH Sampler (1)
52:55 Particle Marginal MH Sampler (2)
53:05 Particle Marginal MH Sampler (3)
53:43 Validity of the Particle Marginal MH Sampler (1)
53:54 Validity of the Particle Marginal MH Sampler (2)
54:18 Validity of the Particle Marginal MH Sampler (3)
54:28 Validity of the Particle Marginal MH Sampler (4)
55:01 Inference for Stochastic Kinetic Models (1)
55:18 Inference for Stochastic Kinetic Models (2)
55:38 Inference for Stochastic Kinetic Models (3)
56:29 Experimental Results

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Description

Over the last fifteen years, sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods gained popularity as powerful tools for solving intractable inference problems arising in the modelling of sequential data. Much effort was devoted to the development of SMC methods, known as particle filters (PFs), for estimating the filtering distribution of the latent variables in dynamic models. This line of research produced many algorithms, including auxiliary-variable PFs, marginal PFs, the resample-move algorithm and Rao-Blackwellised PFs. It also led to many applications in tracking, computer vision, robotics and econometrics. The theoretical properties of these methods were also studied extensively in this period. Although PFs occupied the center-stage, significant progress was also attained in the development of SMC methods for parameter estimation, online EM, particle smoothing and SMC techniques for control and planning. Various SMC algorithms were also designed to approximate sequences of unnormalized functions, thus allowing for the computation of eigen-pairs of large matrices and kernel operators. Recently, frameworks for building efficient high-dimensional proposal distributions for MCMC using SMC methods were proposed. These allow us to design effective MCMC algorithms in complex scenarios where standard strategies failed. Such methods have been demonstrated on a number of domains, including simulated tempering, Dirichlet process mixtures, nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space models, protein folding and stochastic differential equations. Finally, SMC methods were also generalized to carry out approximate inference in static models. This is typically done by constructing a sequence of probability distributions, which starts with an easy-to-sample-from distribution and which converges to the desired target distribution. These SMC methods have been successfully applied to notoriously hard problems, such as inference in Boltzmann machines, marginal parameter estimation and nonlinear Bayesian experimental design. In this tutorial, we will introduce the classical SMC methods and expose the audience to the new developments in the field.

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