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NATO Advanced Study Institute on Mining Massive Data Sets for Security

Modeling rare events: online advertisement targeting using machine learning and data mining

author: James Shanahan

Description

The Turn automatic targeting network provides advertisers a revolutionary option for online advertising campaigns (online advertising is a $16 billion industry in 2006 according to the Interactive Advertising Bureau). An advertiser simply inputs its ad into a self-serve console, and Turn does the rest. Unlike many ad networks operating today, Turn incorporates extensive industry expertise and innovative technology from the fields of machine learning, information science and statistics, to truly make online advertising risk-free, relevant, simple, effective, and most importantly, profitable. Unlike traditional ad networks where advertisers need teams of employees to manage manual targeting including selecting sites or selecting and optimizing hundreds of thousands of keywords, the Turn network automatically analyzes and targets ads. Turn’s technology dynamically selects and blends hundreds of variables such as past performance, brand strength, user profiles, action type and site categories to determine the best targets for each ad, thus eliminating guesswork, time and complexity. The Turn network is based on statistical technology that intelligently targets both text and graphical ads. By dynamically and automatically selecting and blending targeting variables, Turn can determine the best ad or group of ads for any situation. Turn offers true pay-forperformance with its unique bidded CPA model. Because advertisers pay for actions that they define, Turn eliminates the risk of worthless or fraudulent clicks. Whether an advertiser is paying for product purchases, site visits, leads, or email signups, the advertiser is in control of what they pay for and when they pay for it. In the context of this problem setting (with billions of ad impressions), this poster will address some key issues in modeling rare events using machine learning and data mining such as uncertainty, the regression versus classification dilemma and feature engineering.

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Slides
0:00 Modeling rare events: Online advertising using machine learning and data mining
0:39 Brief Bio
1:56 Executive Summary
6:23 Outline
7:03 Advertising
7:13 Advertising as Information
8:10 Online Advertising
8:58 Bad Ad Placement?
9:27 A Bitter-Sweet Advertising Moment!
10:32 Outline
10:33 Online Advertising (1)
11:11 Online Advertising (2)
11:30 Online Advertising (3)
11:34 Online Advertising (4)
12:06 Example Ad Networks
13:06 Online Advertising (1)
13:19 Online Advertising (2)
14:12 Ad Agency
15:04 Online Advertising
15:38 Ads Formats and sizes
16:03 Graphical Rectangular Ad
16:13 Graphical Banner
16:49 Outline
17:02 Business Models
18:10 Some of the Industry Players
18:41 History (Approximate)
19:50 Why Online Advertising?
20:24 Advertiser: Reach
20:47 Why Online Advertising?
21:07 2006 revenue up 35% from 2005
21:42 Internet Adv = 5.9% of Total Adv Spend
22:33 Primary Business Models
23:01 Performance Advertising +16%
23:21 Contextual Ads = 40% of revenue
23:46 Outline
24:38 Creating an online ad campaign
25:27 A Typical CPC Ad
25:50 E.g., Google AdWords (1)
26:08 E.g., Google AdWords (2)
26:36 E.g., Google AdWords (3)
26:52 Regional Targeting
27:08 Managing Ad Campaigns
29:02 Expensive Keywords
30:48 Outline
30:57 Traditional Sales/Forward Markets
32:38 Technology
32:54 OAT Taxonomy (1)
33:28 OAT Taxonomy (2)
33:44 Online Advertising
33:56 Targeting Engine
34:01 CPC Targeting
34:23 CPC Paid Search: Target Page
34:49 CPC Contextual Adv: Target Page
35:10 Online Advertising
35:30 ECPM-based ranking for CPC
37:20 ECPM-based Ranking (Auction)
38:48 Accurate CTR Estimates are Crucial
40:19 Ranking Solutions for CPC Ads
41:42 Ranking Ads using IR (1)
42:30 Ranking ads using IR (2)
42:57 Content-Targeted Advertising - Matching strategies
43:38 Content-Targeted Advertising - Comparison among All Methods
44:11 Ranking Ads using IR
44:43 Estimating CTRs using ML
44:58 ML Features 1/2
46:06 ML Features 2/2
46:33 Learning Setup (1)
46:57 Learning Setup (2)
46:59 Dataset
47:08 Results
47:09 CTR Evolution
47:29 Estimating CTRs using ML
47:49 Outline
47:53 Modeling CTR Challenges
49:44 Other Challenges in the CPC world
50:27 Expensive Keywords
50:50 Fraud on Internet
51:15 CPA versus CPC
51:53 Outline
51:56 Conferences/Workshops
52:08 Bad Ad Placement?
52:11 Executive Summary
53:26 CIKM 2008
53:29 Napa Valley, California, USA
53:32 Transportation
53:34 ACM CIKM 08 Call For Papers
53:49 CIKM 2008 - Important Dates
54:47 - Questions

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