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Machine Learning Summer School 2006 - Canberra
Pascal

Dirichlet Processes and Nonparametric Bayesian Modelling

author: Volker Tresp, Siemens

Description

Bayesian modeling is a principled approach to updating the degree of belief in a hypothesis given prior knowledge and given available evidence. Both prior knowledge and evidence are combined using Bayes' rule to obtain the a posterior hypothesis. In most cases of interest to machine learning, the prior knowledge is formulated as a prior distribution over parameters and the evidence corresponds to the observed data. By applying Bayes' formula we can perform inference about new data. Having observed sufficient data, the a posteriori parameter distribution is increasingly concentrated and the influence of the prior distribution diminishes. Under some assumptions (in particular that the likelihood model is correct and that the true parameters have positive a priori probability), the a posteriori distribution converges to a point distribution located at the true parameters. The challenges in Bayesian modeling are, first, to find suitable application specific statistical models and, second, to (approximately) solve the resulting inference equations.

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Slides
0:00 Dirichlet Processes and Nonparametric Bayesian Modelling
0:38 Motivation
1:17 Gaussian Processes: Modeling Functions
2:36 Dirichlet Processes: Modeling Probability measures
4:23 Outline
5:57 I: Introduction to Bayesian Modeling
5:59 Statistical Approaches to Learning and Statistics
7:42 Review of Some Laws of Probability
7:46 Multivariate Distribution
8:15 Conditional Distribution
8:38 Product Decomposition and Chain Rule
10:00 Bayes’ Rule
10:22 Marginal Distribution
10:52 Bayesian Reasoning and Bayesian Statistics
10:56 Bayesian Reasoning
12:15 Bayesian Reasoning: Example
13:20 Bayesian Reasoning: Debate
15:15 Bayesian Reasoning: Subjective Probabilities
16:43 Technicalities in Bayesian Statistics
17:08 Basic Approach in Statistical Bayesian Modeling
20:37 Basic Approach in Statistical Bayesian Modeling (2)
23:02 Approximating the Integrals in Bayesian Modeling
24:51 Conclusion on Bayesian Modeling
26:09 II: Multinomial Sampling with a
Dirichlet Prior
26:37 Likelihood, Prior, Posterior, and Predictive
Distribution
26:40 Multinomial Sampling with a Dirichlet Prior
27:28 Example: Tossing a Loaded Dice
29:02 Multinomial Likelihood
31:14 Multinomial Likelihood for a Data Set
32:48 Dirichlet Prior
36:15 Posterior Distribution
38:14 Dirichlet Distributions for Dir(·| 1, 2, 3)
42:04 Generating Samples from g and 
42:22 Generative Model
43:56 First Approach: Sampling from g
45:01 Second Approach: Sampling from  directly
47:00 Second Approach: Sampling from  directly (2)
47:13 P(N+1 = k|D) = 0 k+Nk
0+N with 0 ! 0: A Paradox?
49:47 Beta-Distribution
50:37 Noisy Observations
51:05 Noisy Observations 01
52:07 Noisy Observations 02
53:52 Inference based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo Sampling
56:43 Gibbs Sampling
59:11 Gibbs Sampling (2)

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Reviews and comments:

Comment1 Tom, July 18, 2008 at 2:53 p.m.:

This is a great first introduction to Dirichlet distributions and processes which takes care to cover all the necessary background concepts and notation. A lot of the content will probably be very familiar to people who have any background in ML but the lectures are sufficiently well structured to make it easy to skip these bits and I have to commend the lecturer on his thoroughness.


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