Dirichlet Processes and Nonparametric Bayesian Modelling
Description
Bayesian modeling is a principled approach to updating the degree of belief in a hypothesis given prior knowledge and given available evidence. Both prior knowledge and evidence are combined using Bayes' rule to obtain the a posterior hypothesis. In most cases of interest to machine learning, the prior knowledge is formulated as a prior distribution over parameters and the evidence corresponds to the observed data. By applying Bayes' formula we can perform inference about new data. Having observed sufficient data, the a posteriori parameter distribution is increasingly concentrated and the influence of the prior distribution diminishes. Under some assumptions (in particular that the likelihood model is correct and that the true parameters have positive a priori probability), the a posteriori distribution converges to a point distribution located at the true parameters. The challenges in Bayesian modeling are, first, to find suitable application specific statistical models and, second, to (approximately) solve the resulting inference equations.
| Slides | |
| 0:00 | Dirichlet Processes and Nonparametric Bayesian Modelling |
| 0:38 | Motivation |
| 1:17 | Gaussian Processes: Modeling Functions |
| 2:36 | Dirichlet Processes: Modeling Probability measures |
| 4:23 | Outline |
| 5:57 | I: Introduction to Bayesian Modeling |
| 5:59 | Statistical Approaches to Learning and Statistics |
| 7:42 | Review of Some Laws of Probability |
| 7:46 | Multivariate Distribution |
| 8:15 | Conditional Distribution |
| 8:38 | Product Decomposition and Chain Rule |
| 10:00 | Bayes’ Rule |
| 10:22 | Marginal Distribution |
| 10:52 | Bayesian Reasoning and Bayesian Statistics |
| 10:56 | Bayesian Reasoning |
| 12:15 | Bayesian Reasoning: Example |
| 13:20 | Bayesian Reasoning: Debate |
| 15:15 | Bayesian Reasoning: Subjective Probabilities |
| 16:43 | Technicalities in Bayesian Statistics |
| 17:08 | Basic Approach in Statistical Bayesian Modeling |
| 20:37 | Basic Approach in Statistical Bayesian Modeling (2) |
| 23:02 | Approximating the Integrals in Bayesian Modeling |
| 24:51 | Conclusion on Bayesian Modeling |
| 26:09 | II: Multinomial Sampling with a Dirichlet Prior |
| 26:37 | Likelihood, Prior, Posterior, and Predictive Distribution |
| 26:40 | Multinomial Sampling with a Dirichlet Prior |
| 27:28 | Example: Tossing a Loaded Dice |
| 29:02 | Multinomial Likelihood |
| 31:14 | Multinomial Likelihood for a Data Set |
| 32:48 | Dirichlet Prior |
| 36:15 | Posterior Distribution |
| 38:14 | Dirichlet Distributions for Dir(·|1, 2, 3) |
| 42:04 | Generating Samples from g and |
| 42:22 | Generative Model |
| 43:56 | First Approach: Sampling from g |
| 45:01 | Second Approach: Sampling from directly |
| 47:00 | Second Approach: Sampling from directly (2) |
| 47:13 | P(N+1 = k|D) = 0k+Nk 0+N with 0 ! 0: A Paradox? |
| 49:47 | Beta-Distribution |
| 50:37 | Noisy Observations |
| 51:05 | Noisy Observations 01 |
| 52:07 | Noisy Observations 02 |
| 53:52 | Inference based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo Sampling |
| 56:43 | Gibbs Sampling |
| 59:11 | Gibbs Sampling (2) |
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This is a great first introduction to Dirichlet distributions and processes which takes care to cover all the necessary background concepts and notation. A lot of the content will probably be very familiar to people who have any background in ML but the lectures are sufficiently well structured to make it easy to skip these bits and I have to commend the lecturer on his thoroughness.