Influence and Correlation in Social Networks
Description
In many online social systems, social ties between users play an important role in dictating users' behavior. One of the ways this can happen is through social influence, the phenomenon that the actions of a user can induce his/her friends to behave in a similar way. In systems where social influence exists, ideas, modes of behavior, or new technologies can diffuse through the network like an epidemic. Therefore, identifying and understanding social influence is of tremendous interest from both an analysis (e.g., predicting the future of the system) and a design (e.g., designing viral marketing strategies) point of view. In this talk, I will give a general overview of models for diffusion in social network, and then discuss the problem of identifying social influence in the data. This is a difficult task in general, since there are many other factors such as homophily or unobserved confounding variables that can induce statistical correlation between the actions of friends in a social network. Thus, distinguishing influence from those other factors is essentially the problem of distinguishing correlation from causality, a notoriously hard problem. Despite this, I will show how in an environment where the time stamp of the actions are observable, we can design simple statistical tests that distinguish between models of social influence and those that replicate the aforementioned sources of social correlation. I will sketch the proof of a theoretical justification of one of the tests, and present simulation results on randomly generated data and real tagging data from Flickr. The results exhibit that while there is significant social correlation in tagging behavior on this system, this correlation cannot be attributed to social influence.
| Slides | |
| 0:00 | Influence and Correlation in Social Networks |
| 0:17 | Social Systems |
| 2:21 | Research on Social Networks |
| 4:14 | Social Correlation |
| 4:56 | Joining Communities |
| 5:18 | Social Correlation |
| 5:36 | Publishing in Conferences |
| 5:42 | Social Correlation |
| 6:27 | Flickr Tag Vocabulary |
| 6:55 | Social Correlation |
| 7:23 | Sources of Correlation |
| 10:48 | Social Influence |
| 11:48 | Identifying Social Influence |
| 14:17 | Example: Obesity Study - 1 |
| 15:30 | Example: Obesity Study - 2 |
| 16:01 | Example: Obesity Study - 3 |
| 17:13 | Example: Obesity Study - 4 |
| 18:59 | Models of Social Influence - 1 |
| 22:57 | Models of Social Influence - 2 |
| 24:29 | Model |
| 26:24 | Measuring Social Correlation |
| 28:18 | The Max Likelihood Problem |
| 29:18 | Flickr Data Set - 1 |
| 30:23 | Flickr Data Set - 2 |
| 30:30 | Flickr Data Set - 3 |
| 30:51 | Flickr Data Set - 4 |
| 31:02 | Flickr Data Set: Growth |
| 31:19 | Flickr Graph, Indegrees & Outdegrees |
| 31:33 | Flickr Tags |
| 32:41 | Social Correlation in Flickr |
| 33:23 | Distinguishing Influence |
| 35:11 | Testing for Influence |
| 37:17 | Shuffle Test: Theoretical Justification |
| 38:36 | Simulations |
| 40:33 | Simulation Results: Baseline |
| 40:55 | Shuffle Test: Influence Model |
| 41:56 | Shuffle Test: Correlation Model |
| 42:35 | Edge-Reversal Test: Influence Model |
| 43:27 | Edge-Reversal Test: Correlation Model |
| 43:57 | Shuffle Test on Flickr Data |
| 44:42 | Edge-Reversal Test on Flickr Data |
| 44:57 | - Questions |
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The video for this doesn't work.
About the obesity study talked in the presentation, is it really "having an obese friend increases chance of obesity" or "obese people befriend other obese people"? I believe it's important to study which causes which, because if you don't then you might arrive at the wrong results.
Cheers,