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Modelling in Classification and Statistical Learning Workshop

Mistake bounds and risk bounds for on-line learning algorithms

author: Nicolò Cesa-Bianchi, University of Milan

Description

In statistical learning theory, risk bounds are typically obtained via the manipulation of suprema of empirical processes measuring the largest deviation of the empirical risk from the true risk in a class of models. In this talk we describe the alternative approach of deriving risk bounds for the ensemble of hypotheses obtained by running an arbitrary learning algorithm in an-on line fashion. This allows us to replace the uniform large deviation argument with a simpler argument based on the analysis of the empirical process engendered by the on-line learner. The large deviations of such empirical processes are easily controlled by a single application of Bernstein's inequality for martingales, and the resulting risk bounds exhibit strong data-dependence.

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Slides
0:03 TAIL RISK BOUNDS
1:54 STATISTICAL LEARNING THEORY
5:07 EXAMPLES
6:26 RISK BOUNDS
7:03 EXAMPLES
7:20 DATA-DEPENDENT VC THEORY
13:22 AN ALGORITHM-DEPENDENT THEORY
18:34 GOALS
19:30 AN ALGORITHM-DEPENDENT THEORY
19:46 GOALS
21:03 STEP 1: BOUND THE AVERAGE RISK
21:42 AN ALGORITHM-DEPENDENT THEORY
21:51 STEP 1: BOUND THE AVERAGE RISK
24:17 AN ALGORITHM-DEPENDENT THEORY
25:00 STEP 1: BOUND THE AVERAGE RISK
26:25 BERNSTEIN’S BOUND
28:17 APPLICATION OF BERNSTEIN’S BOUND
35:09 STEP 2: PICK A GOOD FUNCTION IN THE ENSEMBLE
35:15 APPLICATION OF BERNSTEIN’S BOUND
35:35 STEP 2: PICK A GOOD FUNCTION IN THE ENSEMBLE
38:35 STEP 3: RELATE TO OPTIMAL RISK IN H
43:31 MORE EXAMPLES
43:34 STEP 3: RELATE TO OPTIMAL RISK IN H
44:22 MORE EXAMPLES
45:42 APPLICATION OF BERNSTEIN’S BOUND
46:07 MORE EXAMPLES
47:24 STEP 2: PICK A GOOD FUNCTION IN THE ENSEMBLE
47:42 CONCLUSIONS
49:28 MORE EXAMPLES
50:13 EXPERIMENTS ON RCV1 CORPUS
50:22 AVERAGES OVER ALL CATEGORIES
50:47 ESTIMATES AFTER 5K DOCUMENTS
51:04 ESTIMATES AFTER 10K DOCUMENTS
51:05 ESTIMATES AFTER 20K DOCUMENTS
51:06 ESTIMATES AFTER 40K DOCUMENTS
51:07 ESTIMATES AFTER 80K DOCUMENTS

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