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LEARNING '06 Conference
Pascal

Predicting Electricity Distribution Feeder Failures Using Boosting and Online Learning

author: Marta Arias, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya
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Slides
0:00 Predicting Electricity Distribution Feeder Failures using Machine Learning
2:24 Overview of the Talk
3:12 The Electrical System
5:04 Electricity Distribution: Feeders
5:52 Problem
7:59 Our Solution: Machine Learning
9:20 New York City
9:41 Some facts about feeders and failures pt 1
10:28 Some facts about feeders and failures pt 2
11:08 Some facts about feeders and failures pt 3
12:03 Feeder data
13:23 Feeder Ranking Application
13:54 Application Structure
14:08 Goal: rank feeders according to likelihood to failure
14:32 Overview of the Talk
15:11 (pseudo) ROC pt 1
16:12 (pseudo) ROC pt 2
16:57 (pseudo) ROC pt 3
17:23 Some observations about the (p)ROC
19:16 MartiRank pt 1
20:23 MartiRank pt 2
22:30 MartiRank pt 3
23:26 Using MartiRank for real-time ranking of feeders
24:56 Performance Metric
26:20 Performance Metric Example
26:43 How to measure performance over time
27:17 MartiRank Comparison: training every 2 weeks
29:09 Using MartiRank for real-time ranking of feeders
30:50 Overview of the Talk
32:05 Learning from expert advice pt 1
32:38 Learning from expert advice pt 2
33:41 Weighted Majority Algorithm [Littlestone & Warmuth ‘88]
35:00 In our case, can’t use WM directly
35:22 Dealing with ranking vs. binary classification
35:48 Dealing with a moving set of experts
37:36 Other parameters
38:45 Performance
39:28 Failures’ rank distribution
40:01 Daily average rank of failures
40:37 Other things that I have not talked about but took a significant amount of time
42:12 Current Status
42:58 Related work-in-progress
46:50 Other related projects within collaboration with Con Edison
47:50 Acknowledgments

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