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The 13th International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining

Temporal Causal Modeling with Graphical Granger Methods

author: Andrew Arnold, CMU

Description

The need for mining causality, beyond mere statistical correlations, for real world problems has been recognized widely. Many of these applications naturally involve temporal data, which raises the challenge of how best to leverage the temporal information for causal modeling. Recently graphical modeling with the concept of “Granger causality”, based on the intuition that a cause helps predict its effects in the future, has gained attention in many domains involving time series data analysis. With the surge of interest in model selection methodologies for regression, such as the Lasso, as practical alternatives to solving structural learning of graphical models, the question arises whether and how to combine these two notions into a practically viable approach for temporal causal modeling. In this paper, we examine a host of related algorithms that, loosely speaking, fall under the category of graphical Granger methods, and characterize their relative performance from multiple viewpoints. Our experiments show, for instance, that the Lasso algorithm exhibits consistent gain over the canonical pairwise graphical Granger method. We also characterize conditions under which these variants of graphical Granger methods perform well in comparison to other benchmark methods. Finally, we apply these methods to a real world data set involving key performance indicators of corporations, and present some concrete results.

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Slides
0:03 Temporal Causal Modeling with Graphical Granger Methods
0:19 Talk Outline
0:48 A Motivating Example: Key Performance Indicator Data (KPI) in Corporate Index Management [S&P]
1:37 KPI Case Study: Temporal Causal Modeling for Identifying Levers of Corporate Performance
2:52 Granger Causality
5:21 Variable Space Expansion & Feature Space Mapping
7:04 Graphical Granger Methods
8:33 Exhaustive Granger vs. Lasso Granger
8:41 Baseline Methods: SIN and VAR
8:42 Empirical Evaluation of Competing Methods
10:38 Experiment 1A: Performance vs. Factors
11:53 Experiment 1’s Efficiency
12:54 Experiment 1B: Performance vs. Factors
13:11 Experiment 1C: Performance vs. Factors
15:35 Experiment 2: Learned Graphs
16:09 Experiment 3: Real World Data Output Graphs on the Corporate KPI Data
16:49 Thank You

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