Confidence in nonparametric credible sets?
introducer: Michael I. Jordan, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences, UC Berkeley
recorded by: Kyoeisha
published: Aug. 22, 2012, recorded: June 2012, views: 10842
Slides
Related content
Report a problem or upload files
If you have found a problem with this lecture or would like to send us extra material, articles, exercises, etc., please use our ticket system to describe your request and upload the data.Enter your e-mail into the 'Cc' field, and we will keep you updated with your request's status.
Description
In nonparametric statistics the posterior distribution is used in exactly the same way as in any Bayesian analysis. It supposedly gives us the likelihood of various parameter values given the data. A difference with parametric analysis is that it is often difficult to have an intuitive understanding of the prior, which affects the believability of the posterior distribution as a quantification of uncertainty. A second difference is that the posterior distribution is much more sensitive to the prior: its “fine properties” matter. This is true even in the asymptotic situation when the informativeness of the data increases indefinitely. In this talk we start by reviewing frequentist asymptotic results and insights on posterior distributions in the semi- and nonparametric setting obtained in the last decade. These results show that posterior distributions can be effective in recovering a true parameter provided some care is taken when choosing a prior. We next go on to ask whether posterior distributions are also capable in giving a correct idea of error in the reconstructions. Are credible sets in any way comparable to confidence regions? We shall not present an answer to this question, but show by example that it will be delicate.
Link this page
Would you like to put a link to this lecture on your homepage?Go ahead! Copy the HTML snippet !
Write your own review or comment: