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Slowly but surely, Bayesian ideas revolutionize medical research
Published on Aug 22, 201213766 Views
Bayesian theory is elegant and intuitive. But elegance may have little value in practical settings. The “Bayesian Revolution” of the last half of the 20th century was irrelevant for biostatisticians.
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Chapter list
Slowly but Surely, Bayesian Ideas Revolutionize Medical Research00:00
Rough History of Biostatistics (1)01:44
Rough History of Biostatistics (2)05:35
My exposures (1)06:40
My exposures (2)11:35
Top 5 Reasons for Bayes13:09
Genetics & Bayes (80s & 90s)14:16
Statistical Inference in Crime16:17
BRCAPRO Validation (1)16:58
BRCAPRO Validation (2)18:21
BRCAPRO Graph19:13
The science of doping ... or lack of thereof 20:07
The science of doping23:20
The Prosecutor's fallacy23:30
The problem with multiples26:10
Assessing probability27:39
Science: Brawling over mammography31:28
History31:40
Bayesian metaanalysis of randomized trials in 199732:05
Fig. 1, Berry JNCI 199832:16
Fig. 3, Berry JNCI 1998 (1)33:43
Fig. 3, Berry JNCI 1998 (2)34:17
Berry JNCI 199834:35
In spite of the evidence & the expert panel, the U.S. Senate …35:00
Berry JNCI 1998 … with 2009 updates (1)35:39
Berry JNCI 1998 … with 2009 updates (2)36:32
Recommendation: Repeat of 1997 (1)36:53
Recommendation: Repeat of 1997 (2)37:09
Reactions to 2009 USPSTF37:21
Cisnet37:52
Trends in female breast cancer death rates, US38:00
Mortality rates, breast cancer, UK38:14
Statistical Blitz Helps Pin Down Mammography Benefits (1)38:58
Statistical Blitz Helps Pin Down Mammography Benefits (2)39:07
NYT Editorial39:15
CISNET from NEJM39:27
Percent reductions in BC mortality due to adjuvant Rx and screening39:59
Bayesian Models (M)41:12
Models (M) (1)41:41
Models (M) (2)42:09
Conclusions from Model M42:40
The Coming Bayesian Tsunami of Clinical Development (1)42:58
The Coming Bayesian Tsunami of Clinical Development (2)43:10
Janet Woodcock44:14
Current use of Bayesian designs45:06
Some areas of application of Bayesian adaptive drug trials46:16
Bayesian adaptive trials46:47
Why?48:57
Adaptive clinical trials49:52
Adaptive Randomization (1)50:23
Example: Troxacitabine in AML (1)50:29
Example: Troxacitabine in AML (2)51:39
Adaptive Randomization (2)51:45
Summary of AML trial results52:16
Cure Magazine (2006)54:27
Simulations Usually Required54:49
Two Recent Bayesian Clinical Trials55:48
JAMA (1)56:16
JAMA (2)56:24
The new england journal of medicine (1)59:12
The new england journal of medicine (2)01:00:09
Two of several BC federal grants01:01:56
Science insider (1)01:03:59
Science insider (2)01:04:01
Science insider (3)01:04:14
I-SPY201:04:48
I-SPY2, article (1)01:04:50
I-SPY2, article (2)01:04:53
Driving biomedical innovation 01:05:17
I-SPY2, article (3)01:05:20
I-SPY2, article (4)01:05:20
New trial design (1)01:05:24
New trial design (2)01:05:34
New trial design (3)01:05:47
I-SPY2: The Cartoon01:07:07
Standard Phase 2 Cancer Drug Trials (1) 01:07:11
Standard Phase 2 Cancer Drug Trials (2) 01:07:23
I-SPY2 Trial (1) 01:07:38
I-SPY2 Trial (2) 01:08:19
I-SPY2 Trial (3)01:08:30
I-SPY2 Trial (4)01:08:32
I-SPY2 Trial (5)01:08:33
I-SPY2 Trial (6)01:08:52
I-SPY-like TRIAL for Combinations (1) 01:08:57
I-SPY-like TRIAL for Combinations (2) 01:08:59
I-SPY-like TRIAL for Combinations (3) 01:09:02
Effects of I-SPY Approaches 01:09:10
Rough History of Biostatistics (2)01:10:56
Rough History of Biostatistics (3)01:11:00