Homo heuristicus: Why biased minds make better inferences

author: Gerd Gigerenzer, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Max Planck Institute
published: Aug. 23, 2011,   recorded: July 2011,   views: 1062
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Slides

Slides
0:00 Homo Heuristicus
3:37 Richard Dawkins, The Selfish Gene
4:46 Gaze heuristic - 1
5:17 Gaze heuristic - 2
5:18 Gaze heuristic - 3
5:19 Gaze heuristic - 4
5:22 Gaze heuristic - 3
5:23 Gaze heuristic - 2
5:24 Gaze heuristic - 1
5:26 Gaze heuristic - 2
5:26 Gaze heuristic - 3
5:27 Gaze heuristic - 4
5:54 As-if Models and Process Models Generate Different Predictions About Behavior
7:48 “The Miracle on the Hudson River”
8:14 Will the plane make it to LaGuardia Airport?
8:32 Research Questions - 1
11:30 Research Questions - 2
12:04 Core Capacities and Heuristics in the Adaptive Toolbox - 1
12:41 Core Capacities and Heuristics in the Adaptive Toolbox - 2
12:58 Which US city has more inhabitants, Detroit or Milwaukee?
14:39 Recognition Heuristic
15:10 Daily Telegraph
15:24 The Less-is-More Effect - 1
16:06 The Less-is-More Effect - 2
16:56 Wimbledon 2003 - 1
18:35 Wimbledon 2003 - 2
18:49 Research Questions - 3
21:15 Research Questions - 4
22:58 Core Capacities and Heuristics in the Adaptive Toolbox - 3
23:11 How to make investment decisions?
24:11 Optimization or Heuristic?
26:52 When Is 1/N Better Than Optimization?
28:49 DAB bank
29:26 Simplicity Fosters Robustness
30:11 Core Capacities and Heuristics in the Adaptive Toolbox - 4
31:12 Heuristics have biases (ignore information) to improve out-of-sample prediction
32:59 Less Can Be More
35:44 Which Chicago High School has the higher drop-out rate?
39:31 The Bias-Variance Dilemma in Prediction
42:09 Temperature in London 2000
42:55 More Is Better in Hindsight (Fitting)
44:45 Less-Is-More in Prediction
45:11 A Fictional Temperature Function h(x) to DemonstrateBias and Variance
45:29 Bias and Variance in Prediction
46:47 Research Questions - 5
48:25 Research Questions - 6
48:36 The heart disease predictive instrument (HDPI)
49:33 Fast-and-Frugal Trees - 1
51:09 Emergency Room Decisions: Admit to the Coronary Care Unit?
52:55 Fast-and-Frugal Trees -2
54:21 A Signal-Detection-Analysis of Fast-and-Frugal Trees
55:50 Three Misconceptions
56:42 Rationality in uncertain worlds

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Description

Heuristics are efficient cognitive processes that ignore information. In contrast to the widely held view that less processing reduces accuracy, the study of heuristics shows that less information, computation, and time can in fact improve accuracy. We review the major progress made so far: (a) the discovery of less-is-more effects; (b) the study of the ecological rationality of heuristics, which examines in which environments a given strategy succeeds or fails, and why; (c) an advancement from vague labels to computational models of heuristics; (d) the development of a systematic theory of heuristics that identifies their building blocks and the evolved capacities they exploit, and views the cognitive system as relying on an “adaptive toolbox;” and (e) the development of an empirical methodology that accounts for individual differences, conducts competitive tests, and has provided evidence for people’s adaptive use of heuristics. Homo heuristicus has a biased mind and ignores part of the available information, yet a biased mind can handle uncertainty more efficiently and robustly than an unbiased mind relying on more resource-intensive and general-purpose processing strategies.

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