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The 25th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2008)

Causal Modelling Combining Instantaneous and Lagged Effects: an Identifiable Model Based on Non-Gaussianity

author: Aapo Hyvärinen, Helsinki Institute for Information Technology

Description

Causal analysis of continuous-valued variables typically uses either autoregressive models or linear Gaussian Bayesian networks with instantaneous effects. Estimation of Gaussian Bayesian networks poses serious identifiability problems, which is why it was recently proposed to use non-Gaussian models. Here, we show how to combine the non-Gaussian instantaneous model with autoregressive models. We show that such a non-Gaussian model is identifiable without prior knowledge of network structure, and we propose an estimation method shown to be consistent. This approach also points out how neglecting instantaneous effects can lead to completely wrong estimates of the autoregressive coefficients.

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Slides
0:00 Causal modelling combining instantaneous and lagged effects: an indentifiable model based on non-Gaussianity
0:15 Overview
0:57 The “causal discovery” problem
1:55 Model-based causal discovery
3:20 Linear Bayesian networks or structural equation models
4:43 Examples of acyclic graphs
5:53 Linear Non-Gaussian Acyclic Model (LiNGAM)
8:19 Estimation of LiNGAM
10:36 Alternative approach: Autoregressive models
10:42 Estimation of LiNGAM
10:50 Linear Bayesian networks or structural equation models
11:04 Alternative approach: Autoregressive models
13:01 Combination of autoregressive and structural equation models
15:01 Estimating combined model - 1
15:59 Estimating combined model - 2
16:44 Estimating combined model - 1
16:47 Estimating combined model - 2
17:51 Simulations
18:00 Financial data application
19:37 Generalization of Granger causality
20:55 Summary
22:09 - Questions
23:16 - Questions

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