Nonparametric Learning of Switching Autoregressive Processes
Description
Vector autoregressive (VAR) processes are useful in
describing dynamical phenomena as diverse as speech,
financial time-series, and the dancing of honey bees.
However, such phenomena often exhibit structural
changes over time and the VAR which describe them
must also change. For example, the vocal tract of a
speaker contracts; a country experiences a recession, a
central bank intervention, or some national or global
event; a honey bee changes from a waggle to a turn
right dance. Some of these changes will appear fre-
quently, while others are only rarely observed. In ad-
dition, there is always the possibility of a previously
unseen dynamic behavior. Thus, we propose a non-
parametric approach for learning switching VAR pro-
cesses, where we take the state sequence to be Markov....
| Slides | |
| 0:00 | Nonparametric Bayesian Learning of Switching Dynamical Processes |
| 0:13 | Applications |
| 0:33 | Priors on Modes |
| 1:06 | Outline |
| 1:36 | Linear Dynamical Systems - 1 |
| 2:35 | Linear Dynamical Systems - 2 |
| 2:52 | Switching Dynamical Systems |
| 3:50 | Prior on Dynamic Parameters |
| 4:48 | Sticky HDP-HMM - 1 |
| 6:28 | Sticky HDP-HMM - 2 |
| 7:24 | HDP-AR-HMM and HDP-SLDS |
| 8:41 | Blocked Gibbs Sampler - 1 |
| 9:50 | Blocked Gibbs Sampler - 2 |
| 10:16 | Blocked Gibbs Sampler - 3 |
| 11:10 | Hyperparameters |
| 11:32 | Results: Synthetic VAR |
| 13:16 | Results: Synthetic AR |
| 13:46 | Results: Synthetic SLDS |
| 14:17 | Results: IBOVESPA |
| 16:28 | Results: Dancing Honey Bee |
| 17:11 | Movie: Sequence 6 |
| 17:38 | Results: Dancing Honey Bee - 1 |
| 18:44 | Results: Dancing Honey Bee - 2 |
| 19:25 | Results: Dancing Honey Bee - 3 |
| 20:17 | Conclusion |
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