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Nonparametric Learning of Switching Autoregressive Processes

author: Emily Fox, Linguistics and Philosophy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Description

Vector autoregressive (VAR) processes are useful in describing dynamical phenomena as diverse as speech, financial time-series, and the dancing of honey bees. However, such phenomena often exhibit structural changes over time and the VAR which describe them must also change. For example, the vocal tract of a speaker contracts; a country experiences a recession, a central bank intervention, or some national or global event; a honey bee changes from a waggle to a turn right dance. Some of these changes will appear fre- quently, while others are only rarely observed. In ad- dition, there is always the possibility of a previously unseen dynamic behavior. Thus, we propose a non- parametric approach for learning switching VAR pro- cesses, where we take the state sequence to be Markov....

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Slides
0:00 Nonparametric Bayesian Learning of Switching Dynamical Processes
0:13 Applications
0:33 Priors on Modes
1:06 Outline
1:36 Linear Dynamical Systems - 1
2:35 Linear Dynamical Systems - 2
2:52 Switching Dynamical Systems
3:50 Prior on Dynamic Parameters
4:48 Sticky HDP-HMM - 1
6:28 Sticky HDP-HMM - 2
7:24 HDP-AR-HMM and HDP-SLDS
8:41 Blocked Gibbs Sampler - 1
9:50 Blocked Gibbs Sampler - 2
10:16 Blocked Gibbs Sampler - 3
11:10 Hyperparameters
11:32 Results: Synthetic VAR
13:16 Results: Synthetic AR
13:46 Results: Synthetic SLDS
14:17 Results: IBOVESPA
16:28 Results: Dancing Honey Bee
17:11 Movie: Sequence 6
17:38 Results: Dancing Honey Bee - 1
18:44 Results: Dancing Honey Bee - 2
19:25 Results: Dancing Honey Bee - 3
20:17 Conclusion

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