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ICML 2007 - The 24th Annual International Conference on Machine Learning
Pascal

Graphical Models for HIV Vaccine Design

author: David Heckerman, Microsoft Research

Description

I will discuss two applications of graphical models to HIV vaccine design. The first helps determine how strongly our immune system fights HIV. The second helps identify which parts of HIV can be successfully attacked by our immune system. I will also discuss how these applications have exposed a weakness in the process of learning graphical models from data---namely, the inability to quantify how many arcs in a learned graphical model are spurious. I will offer a solution based on the False Discovery Rate.

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Slides
0:00 Graphical models for HIV vaccine design
2:55 The need for an HIV vaccine
3:35 Overview
3:57 HIV life cycle
4:45 Two arms of adaptive immune response
5:23 Central question in vaccine design: Can our immune system stop HIV?
6:09 Cellular arm details - 1
6:43 Cellular arm details - 2
6:54 Cellular arm details - 3
7:02 Cellular arm details - 4
7:14 How effective is this mechanism on HIV? - 1
7:28 How effective is this mechanism on HIV? - 2
8:24 HIV mutates rapidly
9:26 Rapid mutation + selection pressure = detectible footprint
10:10 First approach - 1
10:54 First approach - 2
12:05 This approach ignores the phylogeny
12:41 Problem: Simple method ignores the phylogenetic structure of the data - 1
13:11 Problem: Simple method ignores the phylogenetic structure of the data - 2
13:56 Problem: Simple method ignores the phylogenetic structure of the data - 3
14:38 A graphical model approach
15:44 Phylogenetic tree
16:37 Model 1: Explained by phylogeny alone
18:45 Model 2: Explained by phylogeny and HLA
19:45 Many possible associations to investigate
20:15 What biologists don’t want
21:10 What biologists want - 1
21:36 False discovery rate (FDR) - 1
23:01 False discovery rate (FDR) - 2
25:21 Creating null data via permutation
25:59 FDR applied to synthetic data - 1
26:34 FDR applied to synthetic data - 2
26:48 FDR applied to real data - 1
28:04 How many true associations are missing?
28:25 Associations missed
28:43 FDR applied to real data - 2
30:28 Other insights
32:33 Can we find the epitopes?
33:43 Find the epitope HLA alleles
34:17 Example
34:36 Complications…
35:32 Graphical models to the rescue
36:43 What biologists want - 2
37:13 FDR applied to arcs in a DAG model
39:09 Results on synthetic data
39:53 Results on real data
41:22 Conclusions
42:17 - Questions
50:04 - Questions

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