The alphabet model for rare events in social dynamics

author: Andrzej Nowak, University of Warsaw
published: Oct. 15, 2008,   recorded: August 2008,   views: 3223


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In most of social sciences prediction is based on extrapolation of central tendencies. In reality, almost everything that is important is the consequence of a rare event. The alphabet model describes how seemingly unimportant rare events may govern social dynamics.

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