Thermodynamics as a theory of bounded rational decision-making

author: Pedro A. Ortega, Max Planck Institute for Biological Cybernetics, Max Planck Institute
author: Daniel Braun, Max Planck Institute for Biological Cybernetics, Max Planck Institute
published: Oct. 16, 2012,   recorded: September 2012,   views: 141
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Slides

Slides
0:00 Free Energy & Bounded Rationality
0:24 Introduction - 1
0:42 Introduction - 2
0:59 Caveat: Metareasoning does not work! - 1
1:47 Caveat: Metareasoning does not work! - 2
2:04 Caveat: Metareasoning does not work! - 3
2:08 Caveat: Metareasoning does not work! - 4
2:41 Bounded Rationality - 1
2:51 Bounded Rationality - 2
3:30 Bounded Rationality - 3
3:44 The Cost of Transformations - 1
4:11 The Cost of Transformations - 2
5:12 The Cost of Transformations - 3
5:24 The Model of Information State
8:16 Measure-Theoretic Formalization of Transformations
9:24 Axioms of Transformation Costs - 1
9:49 Axioms of Transformation Costs - 2
10:21 Measure-Theoretic Formalization of Decisions
11:28 Decisions
11:35 Measure-Theoretic Formalization of Decisions
11:39 Decisions (cont.)
11:52 Equilibrium Distribution
12:50 NFED Extremum
14:16 Operational Interpretation of Inverse Temperature
15:37 Decision Trees
17:04 Goal: Generalized Decision Trees
17:34 Change of Temperature
18:00 Construction of Generalized Decision Trees
18:32 Generalized Optimality Equations
18:40 Conclusions
18:44 The free energy principle in human sensorimotor control
18:46 Risk in Decision-Making
18:53 Motor Control and Maximum Expected Gain - 1
19:14 Motor Control and Maximum Expected Gain - 2
19:19 Optimal Feedback Control
19:34 Variational Principle
19:37 Certainty-equivalent
19:41 Equilibrium distribution - 1
19:50 Equilibrium distribution - 2
20:25 Risk-sensitivity and model uncertainty
21:17 Experimental Studies
21:28 Study 1
21:29 Study 1: Experimental Setup
22:52 Study 1: Model fit
23:11 Study 1: Results
23:55 Study 3
23:57 Study 3: Experimental Setup
24:58 Study 3: Bayesian Sensorimotor Integration
26:10 Study 3: Model Prediction
26:11 Study 3: Results - 1
26:24 Study 3: Experimental Setup
26:46 Study 3: Model Prediction
27:14 Study 3: Results - 1
28:02 Study 3: Results - 2
28:03 Conclusion

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Description

Perfectly rational decision-makers maximize expected utility, but crucially ignore the resource costs incurred when determining optimal actions. Here we propose an information-theoretic formalization of bounded rational decision-making where decision-makers trade off expected utility and information processing costs. As a result, the decision-making problem can be rephrased in terms of well-known concepts from thermodynamics and statistical physics, such that the same exponential family distributions that govern statistical ensembles can be used to describe the stochastic choice behavior of bounded decision-makers. This framework does not only explain some well-known experimental deviations from expected utility theory, but also reproduces psychophysical choice pattern captured by diffusion-to-bound models. Furthermore, this framework allows rederiving a number of decision-making schemes including risk-sensitive and robust (minimax) decision-making as well as more recent approximately optimal schemes that are based on the relative entropy. In the limit when resource costs are ignored, the maximum expected utility principle is recovered. Since most of the mathematical machinery can be borrowed from statistical physics, the main contribution is to show how a thermodynamic model of bounded rationality can provide a unified view of diverse decision-making phenomena and control schemes.

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