International Workshop on Challenges and Visions in the Social Sciences

Agent-based simulation of emergence through monetary incentives and social pressure

author: Peter de Haan, ETH Zurich
published: Sept. 26, 2008, recorded: August 2008, views: 255

Slides

Slides
0:00	Agent-based simulation of emergence through monetary incentives...
0:40	Structure of presentation part1
1:02	Structure of presentation part2
1:13	Structure of presentation part3
1:15	Structure of presentation part4
1:27	Structure of presentation part5
1:40	Background and topic
1:43	Topic: Reducing energy demand for cars
3:25	Good news: Cars more efficient each year
3:58	Bad news: More energy for cars each year
4:55	EU commission: Three pillar strategy.
5:56	Energy demand: OECD will be overtaken by developing countries in 2014
6:35	Tabel
7:26	Shell/VW fuel strategy
8:30	The traditional approach
8:54	...but today‘s presentation is on...
9:09	New cars...
9:23	Same car, same size...
9:58	15 most sold car models: The engine is relevant for CO2 emissions, not car size!
11:04	Overpowered cars in daily traffic
11:36	New cars... Pictures part1
12:01	New cars... Pictures part2
12:10	Consumer and incentive schemes
12:12	Buying a new car means deciding for 3 other households as well!
12:47	The typical Swiss new car buyer…
13:34	Mini and Porsche
13:49	2000 Euro fur...
14:11	Under incentive schemes, consumers have several options to react
15:02	How incentives take effect: (a) Direct effect on demand side
15:57	How incentives take effect : (b) Macro-effects (adjustment on supply side)
15:59	How incentives take effect : (c) Indirect effects on consumer side
16:01	Simulating effects of incentives
16:03	ETH car market simulation model sim.car
16:57	Detailed car fleet > choice of a subset (ruled by loyalty to brand, gear, size class)
17:26	discrete choice model (multinominal logit)
18:01	synthetic population out of census data (decision models for 40 groups)
18:04	Bottom-up microsimulation (1 mio sales): Every statistic can be computed
18:11	Model is able to reproduce 2005 market data
18:34	Effect of bounded rational decision phase
19:28	Model summary
19:31	Modeling preference changes
19:57	A simple agent-based model on balance between personal preference and social norm part1
21:36	A simple agent-based model on balance between personal preference and social norm part2
22:06	More „C“ cars sold due to neighborhood effects
22:58	Numbers... part1
23:51	Numbers... part2
24:04	Two equilibria: present situation, and „greener world“. Exogenic forcing for transition needed
25:31	Summary and Conclusions
25:32	Summary (1/2)
26:15	Summary (2/2)
27:24	THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

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