MCMC, SMC,... What next ?
Description
The Monte Carlo method was initially developed for scientific computing in statistical physics during the early days of the computers. Due to the rapid progress in computer technology and the need for handling large datasets and complex systems, the past two decades have witnessed a strong surge of interest in Monte Carlo methods from the scientific community. Researchers ranging from computational biologist to signal \& image processing engineers and to financial econometricians now view Monte Carlo techniques as essential tools for inference. Besides using the popular Markov chain Monte Carlo strategies and adaptive variants of it, various sequential Monte Carlo strategies have recently appeared on the scene, resulting in a wealth of novel and effective inferential and optimization tools. In this talk, we will present what we believe to be the "state-of-the art" in Monte-Carlo simulations for inference and will try to identify the next challenges.
| Slides | |
| 0:00 | Behind Markov Chain Monte-Carlo |
| 0:15 | Plan |
| 0:16 | Motivation - 1 |
| 0:17 | Motivation - 2 |
| 0:18 | Motivation - 3 |
| 0:19 | Motivation - 4 |
| 1:27 | Motivation - 5 |
| 1:50 | Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm - 1 |
| 2:36 | Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm - 2 |
| 3:40 | Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm - 3 |
| 3:53 | Metropolis Algorithm - 1 |
| 4:20 | Metropolis Algorithm - 2 |
| 4:34 | Metropolis Algorithm - 3 |
| 5:25 | Scaling |
| 8:19 | Diffusive Limits - 1 |
| 9:42 | Diffusive Limits - 2 |
| 10:23 | Diffusive Limits - 3 |
| 11:50 | Diffusive Limits - 4 |
| 12:15 | Diffusive Limits - 5 |
| 13:18 | Diffusive Limits - 6 |
| 13:35 | Diffusive Limits - 7 |
| 14:37 | Speed / Acceptance Rate - 1 |
| 14:45 | Speed / Acceptance Rate - 2 |
| 15:29 | Speed / Acceptance Rate - 3 |
| 16:25 | How to Control the Acceptance Rate - 1 |
| 16:26 | Speed / Acceptance Rate - 3 |
| 17:38 | How to Control the Acceptance Rate - 1 |
| 17:43 | - Questions |
| 18:16 | How to Control the Acceptance Rate - 1 |
| 18:51 | How to Control the Acceptance Rate - 2 |
| 19:03 | How to Control the Acceptance Rate - 3 |
| 19:04 | How to Control the Acceptance Rate - 4 |
| 19:34 | How to Control the Acceptance Rate - 5 |
| 19:35 | Controlled Metropolis Algorithm - 1 |
| 19:36 | Controlled Metropolis Algorithm - 2 |
| 21:17 | Controlled Metropolis Algorithm - 3 |
| 22:00 | Multidimensional Scaling - 1 |
| 22:02 | Multidimensional Scaling - 2 |
| 22:03 | Multidimensional Scaling - 3 |
| 23:58 | Adaptive MCMC with Multidim. Scaling - 1 |
| 23:59 | Multidimensional Scaling - 3 |
| 24:03 | Adaptive MCMC with Multidim. Scaling - 1 |
| 24:23 | Adaptive MCMC with Multidim. Scaling - 2 |
| 25:08 | Adaptive MCMC with Multidim. Scaling - 3 |
| 25:33 | Adaptive MCMC with Multidim. Scaling - 4 |
| 26:51 | Adaptive MCMC with Multidim. Scaling - 5 |
| 27:10 | Adaptive MCMC with Multidim. Scaling - 6 |
| 27:14 | Tricks and Improvements - 1 |
| 27:15 | Tricks and Improvements - 2 |
| 27:16 | Tricks and Improvements - 3 |
| 27:22 | Tricks and Improvements - 4 |
| 27:22 | Metropolis-Hastings with Independent Proposals - 1 |
| 27:40 | Metropolis-Hastings with Independent Proposals - 2 |
| 27:41 | Metropolis-Hastings with Independent Proposals - 3 |
| 28:54 | Metropolis-Hastings with Independent Proposals - 4 |
| 28:55 | Metropolis-Hastings with Independent Proposals - 5 |
| 28:57 | Metropolis-Hastings with Independent Proposals - 6 |
| 28:58 | Metropolis-Hastings with Independent Proposals - 7 |
| 29:52 | Metropolis-Hastings with Independent Proposals - 8 |
| 30:16 | Metropolis-Hastings with Independent Proposals - 9 |
| 30:44 | Metropolis-Hastings with Independent Proposals - 10 |
| 30:44 | Metropolis-Hastings with Independent Proposals - 11 |
| 30:52 | Results (Andrieu & Moulines, 2006) - 1 |
| 30:52 | Results (Andrieu & Moulines, 2006) - 2 |
| 32:20 | Conclusions - 1 |
| 34:31 | Conclusions - 2 |
| 35:25 | Conclusions - 3 |
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