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Climate Prediction
Published on Apr 24, 20141644 Views
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Chapter list
Climate Prediction00:00
What makes climate prediction possible?01:01
Weather versus climate02:46
Mean January surface temperature (°C)03:58
"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get" - E. Lorenz05:19
Global surface temperature changes06:04
Example 1: Winter extra-tropical atmospheric variability07:07
Winter 2012/2013 was one of the coldest in Europe07:19
Atmospheric circulation behind extreme winters07:57
The North Atlantic Oscillation09:03
Simplest stochastic climate model10:28
Winter extra-tropical atmosphere ~ stochastic process12:03
Example 2: Tropical Pacific interannualclimate variability12:14
Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST)12:23
Historical El Niño variations - 113:21
Historical El Niño variations - 213:50
El Niño Southern Oscillation: Coupled ocean atmosphere phenomenon14:30
El Niño Southern Oscillation: Recharge oscillator model15:05
Example 3: North Atlantic multi-decadal variability17:07
Pronounced 70-80 year variation in observed North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature17:22
Atlantic multi-decadal variability:mechanism uncertain, but ocean circulation plays a key role18:20
Ocean driven by stochastic atmospheric variability20:32
Initial and boundary value predictability22:34
Weather Forecasting and Climate Prediction23:04
Predictability of 1st and 2nd kind: Initial value and boundary value24:36
Boundary forcing on the atmosphere - 126:19
Boundary forcing on the atmosphere - 226:56
Initial value predictability depends on underlying processes27:12
Climate prediction system28:49
Example 1: Seasonal prediction of winter extra-tropical atmosphere circulation30:00
Example 2: Seasonal prediction of Tropical Pacific climate - Initial value31:20
Correlation skill as function of lead time for all start months: Dynamical and statistical (dashed) models31:28
Skill increases by reducing model systematic error32:56
Example 3: Decadal prediction of climate - Initial and boundary value33:03
Skill of CMIP5 initialized near-term forecasts33:24
North Atlantic subpolar gyre - very predictable35:30
What makes climate prediction possible?37:43