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Short- and long-term predictability. Relation to weather and climate models
Published on Apr 24, 20142193 Views
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Chapter list
Short- and long-term predictability. Relation to weather and climate models00:00
Outline00:01
Aim of this talk - speak about00:05
Reality and its model00:55
Dynamical systems02:42
State of the system04:53
Visualization - hypothetical 3D truth and 2D model06:27
Blue: Observable part of the system - (very dense) sequence of analyses; Red: Model10:30
Artificial example - Lorenz 63 system driven by another Lorenz 63 system11:32
Modeling unresolved processes11:40
Parametrization example - the driven Lorenz 63 system12:23
Model assessment and refinement13:07
Perfect model scenario14:07
Parameter and state estimation with perfect model - example - 115:23
Parameter and state estimation with perfect model - example - 216:41
Imperfect model scenario17:39
Sketch of an imperfect model scenario21:07
Problem statement and verification21:14
Example - short-term prediction with imperfect models22:04
Climatology - 123:01
Climatology - 225:02
Pullback attractor26:50
Visualization of the attractors27:15
Pullback attractor - simple example29:29
Pullback attractor - Lorenz 63 with linearly increasing ρ30:09
Usefulness of predictions31:47
Uncertainty33:54
Ensemble prediction38:12
Constructing ensembles38:17
Summary39:02
Some literature on the topics considered in the talk - 139:56
Some literature on the topics considered in the talk - 240:19
Thanks to the colleagues for collaboration on this project - specially to Ljupco Kocarev and Igor Trpevski40:28
Thank you for your attention!40:41