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# How to predict with Bayes, MDL, and Experts

Published on Feb 25, 20077554 Views

Most passive Machine Learning tasks can be (re)stated as sequence prediction problems. This includes pattern recognition, classification, time-series forecasting, and others. Moreover, the understandi

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#### Chapter list

How to Predict with Bayes, MDL, and Experts00:44

Overview01:24

Table of Contents07:59

Philosophical Issues: Contents08:44

Philosophical Issues: Abstract09:21

On the Foundations of Machine Learning09:22

Example 1: Probability of Sunrise Tomorrow11:50

Example 2: Digits of a Computable Number15:29

Example 3: Number Sequences17:15

Occam's Razor to the Rescue20:57

Foundations of Induction21:58

Problem Setup23:22

Dichotomies in Machine Learning25:15

Sequential/online predictions27:53

Bayesian Sequence Prediction: Contents30:16

Bayesian Sequence Prediction: Abstract31:11

Uncertainty and Probability31:13

Frequency Interpretation: Counting32:01

Objective Interpretation: Uncertain Events33:12

Subjective Interpretation: Degrees of Belief35:01

Bayes' Famous Rule37:31

Example: Bayes' and Laplace's Rule41:14