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Homo heuristicus: Why biased minds make better inferences
Published on Aug 23, 201110754 Views
Heuristics are efficient cognitive processes that ignore information. In contrast to the widely held view that less processing reduces accuracy, the study of heuristics shows that less information, co
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Chapter list
Homo Heuristicus00:00
Richard Dawkins, The Selfish Gene03:37
Gaze heuristic - 104:46
Gaze heuristic - 205:17
Gaze heuristic - 305:18
Gaze heuristic - 405:27
As-if Models and Process Models Generate Different Predictions About Behavior05:54
“The Miracle on the Hudson River”07:48
Will the plane make it to LaGuardia Airport?08:14
Research Questions - 108:32
Research Questions - 211:30
Core Capacities and Heuristics in the Adaptive Toolbox - 112:04
Core Capacities and Heuristics in the Adaptive Toolbox - 212:41
Which US city has more inhabitants, Detroit or Milwaukee?12:58
Recognition Heuristic14:39
Daily Telegraph15:10
The Less-is-More Effect - 115:24
The Less-is-More Effect - 216:06
Wimbledon 2003 - 116:56
Wimbledon 2003 - 218:35
Research Questions - 318:49
Research Questions - 421:15
Core Capacities and Heuristics in the Adaptive Toolbox - 322:58
How to make investment decisions?23:11
Optimization or Heuristic?24:11
When Is 1/N Better Than Optimization?26:52
DAB bank28:49
Simplicity Fosters Robustness29:26
Core Capacities and Heuristics in the Adaptive Toolbox - 430:11
Heuristics have biases (ignore information) to improve out-of-sample prediction31:12
Less Can Be More32:59
Which Chicago High School has the higher drop-out rate?35:44
The Bias-Variance Dilemma in Prediction39:31
Temperature in London 200042:09
More Is Better in Hindsight (Fitting)42:55
Less-Is-More in Prediction44:45
A Fictional Temperature Function h(x) to DemonstrateBias and Variance45:11
Bias and Variance in Prediction45:29
Research Questions - 546:47
Research Questions - 648:25
The heart disease predictive instrument (HDPI)48:36
Fast-and-Frugal Trees - 149:33
Emergency Room Decisions: Admit to the Coronary Care Unit?51:09
Fast-and-Frugal Trees -252:55
A Signal-Detection-Analysis of Fast-and-Frugal Trees54:21
Three Misconceptions55:50
Rationality in uncertain worlds56:42