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Agent-based simulation of emergence through monetary incentives and social pressure
Published on Sep 26, 20084624 Views
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Chapter list
Agent-based simulation of emergence through monetary incentives...00:00
Structure of presentation part100:40
Structure of presentation part201:02
Structure of presentation part301:13
Structure of presentation part401:15
Structure of presentation part501:27
Background and topic01:40
Topic: Reducing energy demand for cars01:43
Good news: Cars more efficient each year03:25
Bad news: More energy for cars each year03:58
EU commission: Three pillar strategy.04:55
Energy demand: OECD will be overtaken by developing countries in 201405:56
Tabel06:35
Shell/VW fuel strategy07:26
The traditional approach08:30
...but today‘s presentation is on...08:54
New cars...09:09
Same car, same size...09:23
15 most sold car models: The engine is relevant for CO2 emissions, not car size!09:58
Overpowered cars in daily traffic11:04
New cars... Pictures part111:36
New cars... Pictures part212:01
Consumer and incentive schemes12:10
Buying a new car means deciding for 3 other households as well!12:12
The typical Swiss new car buyer…12:47
Mini and Porsche13:34
2000 Euro fur...13:49
Under incentive schemes, consumers have several options to react14:11
How incentives take effect: (a) Direct effect on demand side15:02
How incentives take effect : (b) Macro-effects (adjustment on supply side)15:57
How incentives take effect : (c) Indirect effects on consumer side15:59
Simulating effects of incentives16:01
ETH car market simulation model sim.car16:03
Detailed car fleet > choice of a subset (ruled by loyalty to brand, gear, size class)16:57
discrete choice model (multinominal logit)17:26
synthetic population out of census data (decision models for 40 groups)18:01
Bottom-up microsimulation (1 mio sales): Every statistic can be computed18:04
Model is able to reproduce 2005 market data18:11
Effect of bounded rational decision phase18:34
Model summary19:28
Modeling preference changes19:31
A simple agent-based model on balance between personal preference and social norm part119:57
A simple agent-based model on balance between personal preference and social norm part221:36
More „C“ cars sold due to neighborhood effects22:06
Numbers... part122:58
Numbers... part223:51
Two equilibria: present situation, and „greener world“. Exogenic forcing for transition needed24:04
Summary and Conclusions25:31
Summary (1/2)25:32
Summary (2/2)26:15
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION27:24