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Online Learning for Time Series Prediction

Published on 2013-08-095883 Views

In this paper, we address the problem of predicting a time series using the ARMA (autoregressive moving average) model, under minimal assumptions on the noise terms. Using regret minimization techniqu

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Presentation

Time Series Analysis00:00
Time Series00:28
Analysis and Forecasting01:11
ARMA model03:30
Predicting time series05:12
Our results06:49
Our results vs. previous results08:18
Online convex optimization11:12
Online gradient descent12:27
Online mirrored descent13:24
Using OCO?13:26
Estimating the noise14:21
Non-proper learning15:26
Main observation16:06
AR modeled by online convex optimization16:59
The algorithms17:27
Experiments - generated data18:10
Simulated data19:08
Real data19:42
More research20:08