Prediction of Human Emergency Behavior and their Mobility following Large-scale Disaster

author: Xuan Song, University of Tokyo
published: Oct. 8, 2014,   recorded: August 2014,   views: 2228


Related Open Educational Resources

Related content

Report a problem or upload files

If you have found a problem with this lecture or would like to send us extra material, articles, exercises, etc., please use our ticket system to describe your request and upload the data.
Enter your e-mail into the 'Cc' field, and we will keep you updated with your request's status.
Lecture popularity: You need to login to cast your vote.


The frequency and intensity of natural disasters has significantly increased over the past decades and this trend is predicted to continue. Facing these possible and unexpected disasters, accurately predicting human emergency behavior and their mobility will become the critical issue for planning effective humanitarian relief, disaster management, and long-term societal reconstruction. In this paper, we build up a large human mobility database (GPS records of 1.6 million users over one year) and several different datasets to capture and analyze human emergency behavior and their mobility following the Great East Japan Earthquake and Fukushima nuclear accident. Based on our empirical analysis through these data, we find that human behavior and their mobility following large-scale disaster sometimes correlate with their mobility patterns during normal times, and are also highly impacted by their social relationship, intensity of disaster, damage level, government appointed shelters, news reporting, large population flow and etc. On the basis of these findings, we develop a model of human behavior that takes into account these factors for accurately predicting human emergency behavior and their mobility following large-scale disaster. The experimental results and validations demonstrate the efficiency of our behavior model, and suggest that human behavior and their movements during disasters may be significantly more predictable than previously thought.

See Also:

Download slides icon Download slides: kdd2014_song_emergency_behavior_01.pdf (32.3┬áMB)

Help icon Streaming Video Help

Link this page

Would you like to put a link to this lecture on your homepage?
Go ahead! Copy the HTML snippet !

Write your own review or comment:

make sure you have javascript enabled or clear this field: