Combinatorial Prediction Markets
published: July 30, 2008, recorded: July 2008, views: 13919
Report a problem or upload filesIf you have found a problem with this lecture or would like to send us extra material, articles, exercises, etc., please use our ticket system to describe your request and upload the data.
Enter your e-mail into the 'Cc' field, and we will keep you updated with your request's status.
Several hundred organizations are now using prediction markets to forecast sales, project completion dates, and more. This number has been doubling annually for several years. Most, however, are simple prediction markets, with one market per number forecast, and several traders per market. In contrast, a single combinatorial prediction market lets a few traders manage an entire combinatorial space of forecasts. For millions of numbers or less, implementation is easy, and lab experiments have confirmed feasibility and accuracy. For larger spaces, however, many open computational problems remain.
Download slides: uai08_hanson_cpm.pdf (2.8 MB)
Download slides: uai08_hanson_cpm_01.ppt (10.5 MB)
Link this pageWould you like to put a link to this lecture on your homepage?
Go ahead! Copy the HTML snippet !