Does an efficient calibrated forecasting strategy exist?

author: Jacob Abernethy, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences, UC Berkeley
published: Aug. 2, 2011,   recorded: July 2011,   views: 3689


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We recall two previously-proposed notions of asymptotic calibration for a forecaster making a sequence of probability predictions. We note that the existence of efficient algorithms for calibrated forecasting holds only in the case of binary outcomes. We pose the question: do there exist such efficient algorithms for the general (non-binary) case?

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Comment1 JuliaPeli, December 16, 2019 at 4:31 p.m.:

Very good article!

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