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The current duration (backward recurrence time) approach to estimating time to pregnancy
Published on Oct 24, 20114417 Views
Time to pregnancy is the duration from a couple starts trying to become pregnant until they succeed and is considered one of the most direct methods to measure natural fecundity in humans. Statistical
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Chapter list
The current duration (backward recurrence time) approach to estimating the distribution of time to pregnancy00:00
Joint work with ...00:37
Overview01:02
Time to pregnancy01:21
Survival analysis02:22
Designs in Time To Pregnancy (TTP) studies03:39
Prospective sampling: example05:23
Probability of pregnancy in a menstrual cycle06:46
Prospective sampling: variants07:31
Designs in TTP studies08:33
Retrospective sampling: example09:39
The retrospective design conditions on not having given up09:49
Fecundability odds ratio (FR)10:58
Calendar time trends11:56
Current duration design14:11
Theory15:21
Backward recurrence time of T∧U18:18
Nonparametric estimation of decreasing density21:16
Penalized NPMLE (Sun and Woodroofe)23:03
Alternative approach to g(0+) : g(ε)23:34
Parametric models: Pareto distribution24:44
Pareto as mixture of exponentials25:44
Parametric models: Generalized gamma model26:11
Illustrations of the inconsistency of g(0+) (1)26:36
Illustrations of the inconsistency of g(0+) (2)26:43
Illustrations of the inconsistency of g(0+) (3)28:15
Illustrations of the inconsistency of g(0+) (4)28:29
Illustrations of the inconsistency of g(0+) (5)28:37
Current duration with covariates28:49
Current duration and unobserved heterogeneity28:50
Regression models for current duration data28:51
Accelerated failure time model for current duration data30:46
Semiparametric inference32:17
Observatoire Epidémiologique de la fertilité en France33:10
Interview35:15
Results (1)35:27
Follow-up35:40
Results (2)35:42
Censoring problems I: giving up37:00
Censoring problems II: unrealistically long current durations38:24
Artificially truncating current duration38:49
Censoring problems III: fertility treatment39:14
Results (3)40:40
Results (4)41:11
Results (5)41:27
Results (6)41:29
Results (7)41:33
Results (8)41:38
Months in waiting41:39
AFT fit: comparison of generalized gamma, Pareto and OLS42:07
Other uses of current duration43:09
Conclusion44:15